In the UK, real-time data from restaurant bookings and online job ads were significantly higher than on the same day last year. Retail footfall was only 8% lower than on the same day in 2019. Despite the external conditions at the time, life was beginning to return to normal. However, with the rise of the new Omicron coronavirus variant, the economy has been left in a deja vu condition of pure uncertainty. Company Christmas parties are getting canceled, retailers (and public transports alike) have begun to reinforce masks protection.
It’s a scenario we’re all too familiar with.
The Bank of England predicts a continued steady rise (while the economy is continuing to recover), there may be an expected increase in the interest rates.
In a speech on Friday 3rd December, Michael Saunders (external member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee), gave his outlook for inflation and monetary policy from the Bank of England. In this, he stated, “at present, given the new Omicron Covid variant has only been detected quite recently, there could be particular advantages in waiting to see more evidence on its possible effects on public health outcomes and hence on the economy.” However, he did go on to say there were risks from delaying an interest rate rise for too long as one of the many impacts could be that it leads employers scrambling for staff.
Since its designation as a variant of concern last week, followed by additional comments from vaccine makers this morning that existing vaccines will not be as effective, has resulted in widespread and significant drops in share prices. Industry specialists have reported that any potential Government restrictions to come as a result of the Omicron variant could hamper the UK’s recovery with others even suggesting that additional restrictions (that are being considered) in Whitehall alone could reduce the national economy’s GDP by 2% equating to around £4bn a month. This is due to the taxpayer having to pay billions more to prevent a newer wave of business bankruptcies and job losses.
In a worst-case scenario, should there ultimately be another lockdown then this could help boost the digital e-commerce side of the economy as well as the supply chain of warehousing and delivery. Online sales would increase similarly to how they did last year with more people working from home. As a result of this, the courier service industry will also look into recruiting more employees to meet the demands of online sales.
In these times of uncertainty, here at Aston Shaw, we can help support you/your business with our specialist advice and tailored support. You can call, email or pop into any one of our offices as much as you’d like and we’ll always do our best to assist you.
We won’t charge you for a five-minute meeting or a phone call either.
